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  • Title: Q's Immigration Blog
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  • Title: Q's Immigration Blog - Home
    Descriptive info: Register.. Help.. Remember Me?.. Home.. What's New?.. Articles.. Forum.. Green Card Forecast.. Advanced Search.. To help us keep the forum well organized, please post all your approvals / celebrations and thanks.. HERE.. If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the.. FAQ.. by clicking the link above.. You may have to.. register.. before you can post: click the register link above to proceed.. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.. Recent Posts.. EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations).. imdeng.. Today.. 08:46 AM.. EB3 Predictions Calculations.. 08:43 AM.. glennphil.. 02:06 AM.. 01:51 AM.. helooo.. Yesterday.. 09:27 PM.. Celebrations Thanks.. suninphx.. 06:01 PM.. Most Active Threads.. Thread Starter:.. qesehmk.. Latest Updates Jun 25 - Rumor about FB china spare visas for EB-C in 2014 (Original source Click HERE ) The rumor doesn't have.. Last Post By:.. Today,.. Please visit EB2 thread to see details.. http://www.. qesehmk.. org/forums/showthread.. php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations) This thread.. benjiding.. This forum has been an excellent support for me.. Five years has been a long wait and predictions done here by Q, Spec, Teddy gang are extremely.. Yesterday,.. Recent Threads.. Restrictions on the entire green card process.. billikoot.. Gurus,.. After reading all informative threads here, we get coverage of  ...   as you please.. About Us.. by.. View Profile.. View Forum Posts.. Private Message.. View Articles.. Published on 03-02-2013 05:11 PM.. Summary.. Q's Immigration Blog is a free immigration blog.. It was established in October 2010.. It's key mission is to establish clarity around green card processing.. Read More.. Visa Bulletins.. Published on 01-22-2013 12:53 PM.. All previous I-485 Visa Bulletins can be found.. here.. A PDF showing Priority Date movement for Employment Based Categories since the beginning of FY1992 can.. Calendar.. August 2014.. Su.. Mo.. Tu.. We.. Th.. Fr.. Sa.. 5.. 6.. 7.. 8.. 9.. 10.. 11.. 12.. 13.. 14.. 15.. 16.. 17.. 18.. 19.. 20.. 21.. 22.. 23.. 24.. 25.. 26.. 27.. 28.. 29.. 30.. 31.. Search.. Calculations and Predictions.. Live discussion On Calculations.. Live Discussion.. Please ask non-calculations related questions here including your situations about labor 140 485 etc etc.. Advocacy Petitions.. 485 - Adjustment of Status.. AC21 / Job Change.. Job Change During GC Processing with or without AC21.. -- Default Style.. -- Default Mobile Style.. Contact Us.. Q's Immigration Blog.. Archive.. Privacy Statement.. Top.. All times are GMT -5.. The time now is.. 02:09 PM.. Powered by.. vBulletin.. Version 4.. 2.. 1.. Copyright 2014 vBulletin Solutions, Inc.. All rights reserved.. Copyright @ WhereismyGC.. com LLC..

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  • Title: Q's Immigration Blog
    Descriptive info: New Posts.. Community.. Member List.. Forum Actions.. Mark Forums Read.. Quick Links.. Today's Posts.. View Site Leaders.. Welcome to the Q's Immigration Blog.. Threads / Posts.. Last Post.. (5 Viewing).. Sub-Forums:.. DoS DHS DoL USCIS Published Data.. ,.. FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read).. PERM/Labor Data.. USCIS Data.. Trackitt Data.. DHS Data.. Forum Actions:.. Forum Statistics:.. Threads: 57.. Posts: 24,519.. Last Post:.. EB2-3 Predictions.. (6 Viewing).. I-140.. Counselor Processing (CP).. Labor Certification (PERM).. EAD (Emp Authorization Document).. Birth Certificate.. Priority Date.. AP (Advanced Parole).. Medical Exam.. Fingerprinting.. Personal Decisions.. Threads: 245.. Posts: 15,242.. Celebrations.. Other Immigration Topics.. Health Insurance.. Passport.. Visas.. Citizenship.. Travel.. Complicated Situations.. H1B Employment.. Threads: 195.. Posts: 1,460.. Restrictions on the.. Non-Immigration Topics.. Financials.. Sports and Entertainment.. Jobs and Career.. Life After GC.. Boosting Innovation.. Enterprenuer's Corner.. Random Acts of Kindness.. Poetry.. Threads: 96.. Posts: 620.. com.. whereismygc.. 08-16-2014,.. 12:21 PM.. Country and Category Discussions.. ROW Mexico and Philipines.. China Forum.. EB1 Forum.. EB2ROW Forum.. EB3 Forum.. EB4 EB5 Forum.. Threads: 8.. Posts: 49.. EB3 Date Movements.. 08-19-2013,.. 05:03 PM.. |.. View Site Leaders.. What's Going On?.. Currently Active Users.. There are currently..  ...   the discussion there.. Also - the year is mistyped in one of your messages.. EB2-3 Predictions (Rather.. Waters are a little murky for EB3P.. It has moved several years in the past few months - the jury is still out on whether the underlying demand has just vanished or will it materialize as CP cases get.. Hi my PD 09/23/11 EB3 PHIL , is there a possibility that this will be current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks.. Hi, My PD 09/23/14 EB3 PHIL, is there a possibility that it may current on Oct visa bulletin? thanks.. There is some problem in the system.. I did FP in July and again got the FP notice for 9/2/14.. I saw on Trackitt that of folks who filed in July got this second FP notices.. I am going Monday for FP and.. Forum Threads.. Restrictions on the entire green.. Posted By.. (0 replies).. in.. I-485 Package Received Before PD.. Zoroark.. (4 replies).. 08-15-2014,.. 12:44 PM.. pending I-485 with previous.. vvr123.. (2 replies).. 08-13-2014,.. 01:47 PM.. Fingerprinting question.. newguy.. 01:07 PM.. Actor Robin Williams Dead.. gten20.. (1 replies).. 08-11-2014,.. 07:18 PM..

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  • Title: Register at Q's Immigration Blog
    Descriptive info: Registration.. Step 1 of 2.. Register at Q's Immigration Blog.. Please Enter Your Date of Birth:.. The date of birth you enter here is binding and may not be altered at a later date.. Make sure you enter it correctly!.. Month:.. -.. January.. February.. March.. April.. May.. June.. July.. August.. September.. October.. November.. December.. Day:.. Year:..

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  • Title: Q's Immigration Blog FAQ
    Descriptive info: Q's Immigration Blog FAQ.. Here you can find answers to questions about how the board works.. Use the links or search box below to find your way around.. vBulletin CMS.. The vBulletin CMS allows you and your users to create, edit and publish articles directly to your site.. It combines a simple to use content manager with a unique organizational system that lets you control the smallest detail of the site from the number of sections, to the overall layout, to the placement of widgets and displays on each page.. Creating Articles.. Editing Articles.. Organizing Articles.. Editing / Managing Sections..  ...   Features.. Reading and Posting Messages.. Search FAQ.. Search Word or Words:.. Search In:.. Search Titles Only.. Search in both FAQ item titles and text.. Select this option if you would like your search to look in the text of FAQ items as well as their titles.. Show only FAQ items that contain.. Any words.. All words.. Complete phrase.. Select an option here to specify how you would like your search query to be treated.. 'Any words' will return the most numerous but possibly least relevant results, while 'Complete phrase' will return only results that contain exactly what you are searching for..

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  • Title: Q's Immigration Blog - Home
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  • Title: Activity Stream - Q's Immigration Blog
    Descriptive info: Activity Stream.. New Events.. New Articles.. Filter.. Sort By.. Time.. Show.. Recent.. Popular.. Anytime.. Last 24 Hours.. Last 7 Days.. Last 30 Days.. All.. Photos.. Forums.. New Activity (.. ).. Please reload this page to view the 200+ new activity items that have been created.. Older Activity.. replied to a thread.. see more.. 4086 replies | 1654506 view(s).. It has moved several years in the past few months - the jury is still out on whether the underlying demand has.. 366 replies | 87979 view(s).. I saw on Trackitt that of folks who filed in July got.. Congratulations ! Enjoy !.. 277 replies | 19788 view(s).. 04:00 PM.. zee112008eb2I.. Hi everyone.. Good news at last.. Status changed to Card/Document Production this morning at 10:15 AM EST.. PD: Nov 2008 | RD: Mar 2012 | RFE:.. 03:53 PM.. Dan2013.. Almost every one who filed in July are getting second FP notices its a glitch at their end, although it seems simple IT glitch the concerning part.. 03:17 PM.. I hear u.. Hopefully this should go smooth.. 01:10 PM.. IsItWorthTheTrouble.. Thanks for your response, Qesehmk.. I'm not freaked out but when you don't get any information in such a situation I get irritated.. Actually, we.. 12:43 PM.. Don't want to freak you out IIWTT.. But it could be that they got a false positive with some undesirable person in their database.. Or another - rather.. 12:32 PM.. I'm a first-time filer (filed in 1st week of July with a PD of 24th July 2008).. First week of august we did fingerprinting and got it stamped.. 12:17 PM.. qbloguser.. Discussion On The Politics of Immigration Reform (Comprehensive Or Otherwise).. Whatever he is planning to do, he should not do it like his healthcare law which was challenged many times  ...   info pass appt on 08/26, hopefully they can provide more insight as you.. 10:15 AM.. sportsfan33.. When I talked to the USCIS multiple times over the last month or two, they had my correct mailing address on file.. I am wondering if I need to really.. 09:57 AM.. vizcard.. I'd call the USCIS help desk and ask them the right address to send it to.. Also make sure you include the 485 receipt number and your A number in the.. 09:52 AM.. Fantastic.. I am getting an uneasy feeling about this now.. Worst case, they might bombard me with another RFE.. Is there an end to this nightmare?.. 09:47 AM.. Sportsfan, Form-G28 is for lawyers who are representing on behalf of the petitioners.. You must not fill your name on that unless you are a member of.. 09:40 AM.. Viz, I might be missing something here.. How exactly do you send a letter to the USCIS? I thought G28 was for exactly that: to inform the USCIS of a.. 09:04 AM.. A G28 is only if you do want a 3rd party to represent you.. If you are representing yourself you SHOULD NOT and DO NOT need to file a G28.. you need.. 09:03 AM.. Jonty Rhodes.. From Oh Law Website.. Personally, I don't think EO is possible on exempting dependents or recapturing visa as Spec has extensively described before.. I.. 08:25 AM.. A small percentage of cases get transferred to the local offices from time to time.. I don't think there is anything to worry about.. I would also take.. 08:22 AM.. Welcome to the forum.. You should receive your EAD within 45 -90 days.. The exact processing time varies.. Back in 2012 when we applied, EAD.. More Activity.. No More Results.. No Recent Activity..

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  • Title: Q's Immigration Blog - Home
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  • Title: Advanced Search - Q's Immigration Blog
    Descriptive info: Search Single Content Type.. Search Multiple Content Types.. Search In.. Search Types:.. All Types.. Groups.. Group Messages.. Static Pages.. Search For.. Keyword(s):.. Search Entire Posts.. User Name:.. Exact name.. Tag:.. Additional Options.. Find Posts.. Any Date.. Your Last Visit.. Yesterday.. A Week Ago.. 2 Weeks Ago.. A Month Ago.. 3 Months Ago.. 6 Months Ago.. A Year Ago.. and Newer.. and Older.. Sort Results by.. Title.. Date.. User Name.. Relevance.. in Descending Order.. in Ascending Order.. Search Tag Cloud.. These are the 70 most-searched-for thread tags.. 485.. ac21.. approvals.. ap  ...   eb2.. eb2 i485 advice.. eb2 predictions.. eb2ic.. eb3.. eb3 to eb2.. eb3-eb2.. education.. employment based.. entertainment.. f-1.. fbar.. forecast.. green card.. green card approval.. green card forecast.. green card future.. green card medical exams.. h-4.. h1b.. h1b-f1.. h1b change.. hr 3012.. i-20.. i-485.. i-485 signature issues.. i-693.. i485.. immigration.. india.. job.. job change.. l1 visa.. led tv.. medical exam.. mexico.. nri.. passport.. phd.. poem shivaji indra jimi.. post 485.. predictions.. prediction tool.. rfe.. rfe on ead.. s.. 1857.. s 1857.. s1857.. stem.. travel.. unpaid leave.. uscis.. uscis notification.. visa.. whitehouse petition..

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  • Title: Celebrations & Thanks
    Descriptive info: Page 1 of 12.. Last.. Jump to page:.. Results 1 to 25 of 278.. Thread:.. Thread Tools.. Show Printable Version.. Email this Page.. Subscribe to this Thread.. Search Thread.. Display.. Linear Mode.. Switch to Hybrid Mode.. Switch to Threaded Mode.. 09-03-2013,.. 01:37 PM.. #1.. Sophomore.. Join Date.. Sep 2011.. Celebrations Thanks.. Five years has been a long wait and predictions done here by Q, Spec, Teddy gang are extremely helpful to get us through the waiting period.. Finally today the wait is over and I got the Card Production Email:.. Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production.. On September 3, 2013, we ordered production of your new card.. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you.. If we need something from you we will contact you.. Thanks for the invaluable information and analysis.. SC:.. NSC.. PD:.. 05/29/2008.. ND:.. 01/27/2012.. FP:.. 03//22/2012.. EAD:.. rfe for photo 03/16/2012.. replied 03/26/2012.. ead/ap card production 04/10/2012.. GC:.. 09/03/2013.. Reply With Quote.. 01:52 PM.. #2.. Spectator.. Guru.. Oct 2010.. 2,931.. Originally Posted by.. benjiding,.. Congratulations!!.. Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.. 01:53 PM.. #3.. Jun1308.. Aug 2013.. congratulations benjiding.. 02:43 PM.. #4.. Maksimus.. 40.. Congratulations, benjiding!.. 03:27 PM.. #5.. Sep 2010.. 3,667.. benji - many congratulations!! Your labor day weekend starts again!!.. p.. s.. - Perhaps its not just me.. but what does benjiding stand for!!.. The purpose of this site is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.. Use the info at your risk.. None of this is legal advice.. Please follow the.. Forum Rules and Guidelines.. as you participate or view the forum contents.. Forum Glossary.. 09-04-2013,.. 09:59 AM.. #6.. coolvibe.. Jun 2013.. Received Card Production email/SMS this morning for Self,my wife and my both daughters.. EB2I Feb 28,2008 NSC.. I wish good luck for all of you waiting for GreenCard.. God Bless every One.. 10:04 AM.. #7.. coolvibe,.. Congratulations!!.. A big relief I think.. 05:17 PM.. #8.. Pedro Gonzales.. Visit Homepage.. Jul 2011.. Location.. NYC.. 486.. Thanks guys, especially you Spec.. I'm not going to abandon the forum, so i'm not going to give a long drawn out speech.. But a couple of weeks of vacation will help with my addiction.. A couple of chilled beers now to help this sink in.. NSC (originally TSC, transferred to NSC on 02/13/13) |-| PD - 04/25/08 |-| MD - 01/19/12 |-| RD - 01/27/12 |-| ND - 01/31/12 |-| Check Encashed - 02/02/12 |-| NRD - 02/04/12 |-| FPND - 02/09/12 |-| FPNRD - 02/17/12 |-| FP Early Walk-In - 02/24/12 |-| EAD/AP Approval card production notice - 03/07/12 |-| EAD/AP RD - 03/12/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal RD - 12/11/12 |-| EAD/AP renewal approval - 01/22/13 |-| 485 Approval notice - 09/04/13 |-| GC RD - 09/11/13|.. 05:26 PM.. #9.. Pedro - that's the longest text I have read anybody informing people that s/he got a GC!!! LoL!!.. All the best and many congratulations!!.. 37 approvals so far (tracker and threads) and the 37th was ME!.. Inspired by natvyas' post earlier, I called an L1 officer and got the run around, so I did some more research on trackitt, figured out how to get to an L2 officer, and chose to give my number rather than wait the 122 minutes they said it would take.. About 90 minutes later I got a call back, and really no information from the L2 officer other than that my application was with an officer.. Less than 20 minutes later, I got the Card Production/Decision SMS and email.. I really have no way to be sure if the two were related at all, but mine isn't the first case out there where this has happened.. The latest splits are as follows:.. Augusters:------TSC 9-----NSC 0-----Total 9.. Septemberers:--TSC 6-----NSC 22-----Total 28.. TSC was working largely on clearing August backlog this morning, but appears to have shifted to the Septemberers this afternoon.. After years of approaching this with a zen-like almost-Buddhist calm, I've been  ...   01/20/2012 | FP Done: 2/28/2012 | EAD/AP Approval Email: 3/7/2012 | EAD/AP Card : 3/9/2012| EAD Renewal: 2/15/2013 | GC CPO: 8/29/2013.. 09-06-2013,.. 09:13 AM.. #19.. pavanraj.. I have received following mails between 9.. 00 am - 9.. 10 am for self, my Wife Son from USCIS.. Can anyone pl.. confirm if this can be considered as initial stage of GC approval?.. *** DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS E-MAIL ***.. The last processing action taken on your case.. Receipt Number: SRC1290XXXXXX.. Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS.. Your Case Status: Decision.. On September 5, 2013, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status.. Please follow any instructions on the notice.. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later.. If you move before receiving your card, please call our customer service center at 1-800-375-5283.. During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner.. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.. My Details are:.. Service Center:TSC.. EB2 I Direct.. Our PD: May 20th, 2008.. Our RD: Jan 17th, 2012.. RFE: Recived on Mar 23, 2012 to Self (Medical) Spouse (Medical BC).. RFE: Replied on April, 02 status is RFE Response Review until today.. Congressman / Senator Service used SR created on 09/04/2013.. 09:14 AM.. #20.. skchoubey.. Apr 2012.. NJ, USA.. Q, Spec and all others,.. I was a silent follower of this forum, taking pearl of wisdom from all of you.. Today, I received my GC approval SMS Email with status of Card Production.. I had a Priority date of Apr 2, 2008 (EB2I) from TSC.. My case - I485 was filed last year on Jan 12 and had RFE for Immunization for my sons, which was replied on May'12.. I had added my name in the list which Pedro had put together as skchoubey - apr2, 2008 (EB2I).. I must say that, it is really a big relief for me and my family that finally I got GC (more than 7 years into US),.. Thanks to all of you again.. 09:25 AM.. #21.. ontheedge.. Nov 2011.. Metuchen, NJ.. 115.. Congrats!! You're golden.. (green, rather).. PD - 3/15/2008 EB2 I TSC l RD - 1/6/2012 l ND - 1/10/2012.. CPO - Awaited.. 09:54 AM.. #22.. Thank you for your wishes.. I am greatly Indebted to many people on this site.. Our great Gurus on this site had been continuous source of inspiration.. Many of them are doing a selfless service for betterment of immigrant community.. I truly salute your service and sincerely thank everyone for their invaluable contribution.. I learnt lot on immigration matters from this site.. For people waiting for GC I wish all the best hope you get greened too.. My advice is please use all available resources or pull all possible strings.. I contacted Congressman, sent email to Ombudsman raised 'SR'.. I do not know which one had worked.. As adage say Make hay while sun shines.. I followed this simple philosophy.. 10:00 AM.. #23.. sk - thank you for sharing.. Many congratulations!!.. 10:02 AM.. #24.. congratulations Pavan.. Thanks for sharing and good advice from you I must say.. 10:07 AM.. #25.. Congrats to skchoubey and Pavan.. Good news and that too on a Friday is wonderful.. Have a great weekend.. Quick Navigation.. Site Areas.. Settings.. Private Messages.. Subscriptions.. Who's Online.. Search Forums.. Forums Home.. Previous Thread.. Next Thread.. Thread Information.. Users Browsing this Thread.. There are currently 1 users browsing this thread.. (0 members and 1 guests).. Bookmarks.. Digg.. del.. icio.. us.. StumbleUpon.. Google.. Posting Permissions.. You.. may not.. post new threads.. post replies.. post attachments.. edit your posts.. BB code.. is.. On.. Smilies.. are.. [IMG].. code is.. [VIDEO].. HTML code is.. Off.. Forum Rules..

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  • Title: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)
    Descriptive info: Page 1 of 164.. 51.. 101.. Results 1 to 25 of 4087.. 09-09-2012,.. 11:44 PM.. EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations).. Latest Updates.. Jun 25 - Rumor about FB china spare visas for EB-C in 2014 (Original source.. Click HERE.. The rumor doesn't have sufficient information and there is probably some lost in translation in the rumor.. First, it talks about several hundred visas when FB china last year had almost 4K underutilized visas in FB.. Second, it talks about rollover in same year - which the law doesn't really allow.. The law allows rollover of FB to EB only during next year.. Given that we suspect that EB China may indeed be eligible for extra visa to ensure 7% usage across FB and EB.. BUT.. those visa will have to come from the SOFAD thus effectively reducing visas available to backlogged countries (India in EB2 and ROW in EB3).. Given the lack of specific information the best that we can say is that the impact will be between 0 and 2K visas for EB2 and EB3.. That should be approximately 1-2 months for each EB2I and EB3ROW.. From EB2C perspective that would translate to a date advance between 0-9 months and same with EB3C.. Jun 23, 2014 Forecast Update (Trackitt data and DHS annual reports).. Overall we don t see a need to change our current forecast.. EB1 is 1/3rd more compared to prior year.. EB2ROW is 60% down compared to prior year.. And EB3ROW is 50% more compared to prior year.. We do see a caution in EB1 usage.. EB1 usage will most likely exceed category quota and may end up hurting EB2.. Last year Visa Office used 5-6K more visas than were available.. The tool doesn t depend on that.. So if those 5-6K are available then tools prediction should be improved by approximately 3 months.. Jun 10, 2014 Updated Visa Bulletin commentary.. May 13, 2014 (Trackitt, 485 Inventory, 485 Performance Data Update) - Observed 60% reduction in YTD EB2ROW approvals.. 50% more YTD approvals in EB1C 35% more YTD approvals in EB3ROW.. Thus we expect EB1 to NOT provide any spillover and EB2ROW to provide all the spillover.. EB1 may allow passing of some of the EB4/5 spillover to EB2.. Mar 31, 2014 (Trackitt Update) - Observed approx.. 50% YoY more demand for EB1C-I, 75% YoY less demand for EB2 ROW and 25% more YoY demand for EB3ROW.. Respectively they will result in less SOFAD for EB2I, much more SOFAD for EB2I and almost no SOFAD for EB3I.. Mar 3, 2013 (Labor data update) Latest PERM data confirms 33% drop in PERM approvals compared to last year.. Mar 3, 2014 (485 Inventory Update) 485 inventory data for Q1 2014 is not quite conclusive.. We don t see anything that will affect our current model either vely or +vely.. 2014 Summary Trend Prediction.. EB2I dates will see net forward movement in 2014 but will experience initial retrogression similar to last year.. The dates should move in Q3 of USCIS year i.. e.. between Jul-Sep 2014.. Overall EB quota is less than prior year (150K vs 158K).. And secondly, significant backlog exists prior to Jun 2008 which is where dates ended in Sep 2013.. However an overall slowdown in PERM approvals as well as overall slowdown in 140 as well as 485 approvals could be helpful in reducing backlog.. General Prediction.. Tailwinds (+ve things).. · Overall economy and resulting job environment continues to dampen overall demand across the board.. (This is now confirmed by labor reports that show almost 36% drop in PERM certifications across the board.. ).. · 10K extra visas compared to annual quota (150K vs 140K).. · Almost zero backlog in EB4 and Moderate in EB5.. Immigration is like a balloon, you press it in one place and it pops out from other side.. We are seeing similar thing in immigration where since 2007, there has been a trend in EB3 candidates porting to EB2.. Since 2007, the rules of spillover were changed to horizontal spillover, EB2 stopped providing any spillover to EB3.. Thus EB3 backlog became quite acute.. Now portings are happening from EB3- EB2 in such a way that for retrogressed countries like India, the dates will remain retrogressed for much of the year except at the end of the year when the dates will move based on how many visas are left from other categories.. Luckily there are still other categories that are providing extra visas.. Those categories are EB4, 5, EB1, and sometimes EB2ROW.. So people shouldn't be worried about temporary retrogression.. Generally every year these categories ensure that EB2IC dates move forward.. This year i.. 2014, there will be 10K extra visas from FB that will be used in EB category.. Last year that number was 18K.. So in 2014, the movement of EB2I should be somewhat less than last year - if everything else being equal.. However the fact that PERM, 140 and 485 processing are all slowed down.. PERMs are down 33% compared to last year and 67% down compared to the one before that.. This will certainly act favorably for backlogged countries.. The severe retrogression in EB3 will continue albeit the category will keep moving forward because EB3ROW hasn t been able to generate enough demand.. So although the model shows modest movement for EB3I we do think the real movement for EB3I will be 6-8 months.. At the current trend, EB3ROW might get current in a year or two.. The effect of CP/NVC data:.. The latest NVC data shows 9K EB2I CP applications in the pipeline.. This data is in addition to the 485 applications as well as any possible upgrades from EB3I- EB2I.. We estimate that around half of those CP cases will be pre 2009 increasing real pre 2009 backlog to about 16-17K.. If one adds approximate 5K EB3- EB2 porting then the pre 2009 backlog comes to around 21-22K.. That is quite a large number to overcome for dates to move into 2009.. But with the tailwinds mentioned above the dates could very well move into Q1 2009.. 2013 Visa Consumption Update.. In January 2014 we saw 2013 Visa Statistics come out.. A few more interesting observations from the 2013 visa allocations: (In the order of importance and implications).. Overall consumption was 3K more than initial visa allocation of 158K.. EB2 consumption was 63K i.. approx 18K more than quota.. Thus 18K came from other categories.. EB2ROW consumption was 36K.. That is huge.. Plus EB2P received 4.. 4K and EB2-SKorea received 7K.. This doesn't bode well for 2014.. EB3 overall consumption was 41K which was 3K less than its quota.. However EB3I received 7K and inventory reduced by 12K.. Thus 5K of EB3- 2 porting for India was confirmed.. EB1 India ate up almost 10K while EB1 china consumed 6K.. thus showing healthy demand for EB1 in 2014.. EB5 china consumed 6K thus showing healthy future demand for EB5.. Overall it is safe to say without the 18K extra visas EB2I would have been crushed under all this demand and there would be very little movement.. Fundamentally there are several -ve trends going on here.. EB1 and 5 have healthy demand.. EB2ROW has very strong demand - probably it includes EB3 porting.. EB2I has almost 5K of EB3I porting.. EB3ROW as well as EB3I has solid good trends going on.. Basically EB3ROW should become current in couple of years from now - perhaps as soon as next.. Last edited by qesehmk; 06-25-2014 at.. 11:14 PM.. 09-10-2012,.. 06:54 AM.. veni001.. Jan 2011.. South-West.. 1,053.. Guesstimated Predictions for FY2013!.. EB1:.. 10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~14k.. Estimated new demand ~18K.. Expected Spillover ~8K.. EB2ROW-M-P:.. 10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~18k.. Estimated new demand ~17K.. Expected Spillover ~0.. EB4:.. EB5:.. 10/4/12 - pending Inventory ~20.. About 4K I-526 pending with USCIS.. Expected Spillover ~4-5K.. EB2IC annual allocation: 5.. 6K.. Total Estimated SOFAD : ~18K.. Spillover is not expected until Q4 of FY2013 and EB2IC should end around April-June 2008.. Update: 02/17/13.. FB -- EB : ~18K.. With the addition of FB Spillover FY2013-EB2IC should end around Oct-Dec 2008.. Last edited by veni001; 02-23-2013 at.. 10:08 AM.. Reason:.. Typo.. Not a Legal advice/opinion, please check with good immigration attorney.. 07:02 AM.. Spec's Predictions for FY2014.. As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt.. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.. FY2014.. EB2.. Slow PERM processing by DOL means that there should be significant Fall Across within EB2 from ROW.. There is a slight danger this could be reduced because PERM processing speeds have increased, but the acceleration appears to have started a little too late to affect FY2014 significantly.. Currently, EB1 approvals appear to have increased, but the data supporting this is not entirely reliable, so the scale of the increase is uncertain.. Update: The approval rate for EB1 has now slowed.. I expect reasonable Fall Up to EB1 from EB4 and probably no Fall Up to EB1 from EB5.. Ultimately, I expect this to Fall Down to EB2, although there is a slightly greater risk than normal of EB1 using some of the Fall Up if demand continues through the second half of the FY.. Based on the latest (uncorroborated) information from CO, around 15k visas may be available for EB2-I in Q4 FY2014.. Using the USCIS inventory figures, a 5% denial rate and 20% contingency, that would be enough to move to a Cut Off Date of 01JUN09.. 3k cases would be left unapproved in FY2014 within the Cut Off Date.. If approved in October 2014, the initial allocation for EB2-I in FY2015 would be used.. Unless there are extra FB visas available in FY2015, retrogression in November 2014 would  ...   27-Feb-2012|| EAD/AP: 28-Feb-2012 || I-485: Greened.. 10:29 AM.. june2010.. I have been a silent follower of this great forum for more than a year now and i am constantly amazed by the depth of knowledge and analysis provided here.. Needless to say that I thank each and every one of you who have contributed and helped others to get better understanding of this long process.. Having said that, where do people think the PD will swing to in 2013 for EB2I ? Is there a strong possibility that it crosses mid-2010 or later in order to build up the inventory again?.. 02:01 PM.. Milwaukee WI.. 801.. Hi Friends,.. Just saying a big Hello to all of you for the new thread.. I have not been around much lately and when I did venture this side, I mostly read silently.. Expecting to be back on a more regular basis going forward.. Glad to see that all the regulars (Q, S, T.. ) are around and contributing, as always.. Update on my situation: I am in the EAD/AP world (and thankful to be here).. Before the current slowdown, I had expected my GC to be done before the end of FY2014 - but I am not so sure now.. This actually puts a spanner in the works for me since my current contract is up to the end of 2014 academic year and it is likely that it will not be renewed.. I guess I will be looking around for info on how to change jobs and keep GC process alive while living in a EAD/AP universe.. Anybody has any experience/thoughts?.. Best,.. imdeng.. Last edited by imdeng; 10-01-2012 at.. 02:04 PM.. EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 |.. I doubt that CO will face a need to build inventory in FY2013 given the number of pending 485s.. I guess if a good number of those are used up in FY2013, then inventory building might become an option some time in FY2014 - not before that.. Having said that, where do people think the PD will swing to in 2013 for EB2I ? Is there a strong possibility that it crosses mid-2010 or later in order to build up the inventory again?.. 05:29 PM.. Eb2_Dec07.. East Coast.. 183.. When is the first big sweep predicted for EB2-I in 2013.. Guys , any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.. And how far the first sweep might be.. On another note , if there are qualifying EB3 to Eb2 porters with PD between 2006 thr 2007 , don't they have to wait a little longer until they get their 485 application in to the stream and wait for the process of pre-adjudication and RFEs etc etc.. What I'm trying to point out is if there were to be a big swing in to end of 2007 or 2008 then pre-adjudicated cases based on PD should get an immediate shot at getting the GC correct.. Please correct me if I'm missing anything.. 09:03 PM.. Guys ,.. any predictions when the first swing might happen this fiscal for EB2-I.. Eb2_Dec07,.. We have to see EB2ROW coming back to C first and the inventory date till end of last FY (if and when available) will shed some light on the probabilities.. This will be another interesting year!.. 10-02-2012,.. 06:47 AM.. For sure.. We have already had three very good years from EB2IC perspective.. I guess we are due for a less-than-stellar year now.. But, I agree with Q that we will catch up to the long term average for EB2IC (4 years for EAD, 5 for GC).. Also - we are passing through the densest period for EB2I.. Things should ease up a bit once we cross the mid-2008 point (until we hit the dense-again period of 2010 PDs).. This will be another interesting year!.. Last edited by imdeng; 10-02-2012 at.. 07:05 AM.. justvisiting.. Jun 2012.. 152.. So, USCIS was approving EB1 as of 9/28/2012 (according to trackitt).. We also never saw a formal statement from DOS announcing that numbers have been exausted.. I have a suspicion Mr.. C.. O.. overreacted to USCIS's hyper-productivity in March, USCIS slowed down EB1s, and regretfully, visa numbers were wasted.. 01:15 PM.. gc_soon.. Sep 2012.. US.. 140.. murthy.. com/2012/10/02/key.. rams-extended/.. Does this mean, there will be no EB4 and EB5 for the next 2 years?.. 01:27 PM.. Does this mean, there will be no EB4 and EB5 for the next 2 years?.. The opposite really.. A.. subset.. of both EB4 and EB5 was due to sunset on September 30, 2012.. This was reflected in the October VB.. D.. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA CATEGORIES.. Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 568(a)(1) of Public Law 111-83, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2012.. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2012.. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2012, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.. S.. no later than midnight September 30, 2012.. Employment Fifth Preference Pilot Categories (I5 and R5): Section 548 of Public Law 111-83 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2012.. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2012, and may be issued for the full validity period.. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2012.. The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as Unavailable for October.. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur.. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2013, those cut-off dates would immediately become Current for October.. Had the legislation not been extended, there would have been fewer applicants in EB4 and probably in EB5 as well because many use projects set up though the Pilot Program.. Since the legislation has now been extended until September 30, 2015, these Categories will now be Current in the October VB and the expected numbers will be unchanged.. 10-04-2012,.. 12:06 PM.. USCIS Processing Times Updated.. They can be found.. As of August 31, 2012 the processing dates for EB I-485 were:.. NSC - 4 months.. TSC - 06 March 2012.. Hopefuly that means when the new Inventory for October is released, TSC will have dealt with all cases until early April.. That should mean relatively few cases will not be in the Inventory and also most cases should be preadjudicated.. 02:08 PM.. Spec - I am not sure about everybody being pre-adj.. I mentioned in a different thread that I called to figure out whether I am pre-adj and the lady would not commit on my case and kept repeating Alll AOS cases are pre-adjudicated.. Specifically for my case, my status is still Acceptance and I have not received an RFE for my BC and Flu - which if they looked at my papers - they should be asking for.. Just one data point here - but it puts in doubt whether they are really pre-adj all the cases in the 4 months timeframe for NSC.. My RD/ND is early Feb in NSC.. PS Thank you for your tireless work here Spec.. May be we don't say this enough - certainly not enough to do any justice to your time, effort and openness to help one and all - so again - Thank You!.. 02:51 PM.. imdeng,.. Thanks for the kind words.. I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.. Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.. Sometimes it's just nice to wish.. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?.. I don't think so.. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.. 10-05-2012,.. 07:50 AM.. New York.. 1,485.. Unfortunately, that also means that the.. DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers.. , since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.. Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.. | EB2-I | PD: 8/20/08 |.. 08:30 AM.. camilosesto83.. Oct 2012.. Question on I-129 form.. Hi Folks,.. I have a question on form I-129 for H1b filing during change of employer.. In part 4, they ask Have you ever filed an immigrant petition for any beneficiary in this petition.. The new employer for whom I intend to work (who is filing this I-129) has not filed any immigrant petition for me.. But I have an approved I-140 with my previous employer.. In this case, should the answer be yes or no.. Thanks in advance.. Camilo.. 08:48 AM.. chengisk.. Feb 2012.. MSP.. 96.. Technically isn't that one of the reasons the dates moved all the way into 2010? - other than tardy receipts.. 10:10 AM.. Camilo - welcome to forum.. I-129 is an employer form.. So the question is being asked to the new employer who hasn't yet filed immigrant petition for you.. So the answer is NO.. Not sure why you are filling out the form.. just helping out the employer?.. Camilo.. There are currently 3 users browsing this thread.. (0 members and 3 guests).. Tags for this Thread.. View Tag Cloud..

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